thinking of selling? — play a game … (part 2 of 3)

(please read part-1, below)

So you’ve described how your company will make money in the future that everyone probably thinks is the common-sense future.  It’s certainly the kind of future business environment you’ve planned for, the kind of future where you have a pretty good idea of where there are opportunities and where there are potholes.

The tough news is that the chances are really, really good that your Official Future isn’t going to happen.

“Ahhhh”  you say.  You have ‘scenarios’ for that!  You’ll do “x” if business opportunities start to flag.  You’ll do “y” if business surges ahead of the competition.

You might as well be rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Whatever future that comes our way  – experience has shown us time and time again – something will be something of a zinger.  There’ll be some weird twist, some bit of conventional wisdom about the way the world works – turned upside down.

And it’s very hard to see those coming. Very hard.

KeyForward game boardWhat we CAN do – and what you will do with this board game – is trick yourself to see plausible but heretofore un-considered business environments.

Again – the details of playing the game aren’t important here. What IS important is that what happens is that different cards are placed on the game-board.

Earlier in the game, you selected 4 cards – 4 critically important forces that will shape your ‘most likely’ business  environment.

As the game progresses, you exert less control over what forces appear on the game board — but your task is to help make sense of these new environments.  To help see where there are opportunities and dangers. To see who might be new suppliers, new customers, new business partners.

And you end up with a collection of different – truly different – scenarios , accompanied by some good, hard thinking about how your company will prosper in these different worlds.

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